Author: David Maina
-
Top Predictions This Week: Kenya Forecast Roundup
Kenya rarely has a quiet week. Fuel prices move, the shilling reacts to global markets, football fans argue about matches that haven’t happened yet, and politicians begin positioning themselves for events still months away. Most forecasts turn out partly right and partly wrong. That’s normal. The interesting part is understanding why a forecast exists in…
-
How to Analyze Odds and Probabilities in Prediction Markets
If you’ve ever looked at a prediction market and wondered why one outcome is trading at 72% while another sits at 28%, you’re not alone. At first glance, those numbers seem straightforward. Higher percentage means more likely. Lower percentage means less likely. That’s true, but it’s only part of the story. What those probabilities really…
-
Will the Kenyan Shilling Recover? A Look at the KES USD Forecast
The Kenyan shilling has had an interesting few years. Not long ago, almost every conversation about the currency centered on weakness. Importers worried about rising costs. Travelers complained that foreign currency had become expensive. Businesses with dollar-denominated loans were under pressure. Then things shifted. The shilling strengthened more than many people expected, and suddenly the…
-
7 Beginner Mistakes in Prediction Markets (And How to Avoid Them)
Most people don’t lose money in prediction markets because they lack intelligence. They lose because they’re human. That sounds obvious, but it’s easy to forget once real money or even just the desire to be right gets involved. Prediction markets have a way of exposing habits you didn’t know you had. They reward patience, research,…
-
Top Prediction Market Platforms in 2026
Prediction markets have quietly moved from a niche internet curiosity to something researchers, economists, journalists, and policy analysts pay attention to. Not constantly. Nobody’s checking election probabilities while standing in line for coffee every morning. At least most people aren’t. But over the last few years, forecasting platforms have become increasingly visible. Partly because some…
-
World Cup 2026: Biggest Surprises From the Group Stage So Far
The 2026 World Cup is still in its early stages, but it already feels a little less predictable than many people expected. That’s not unusual, exactly. Every tournament produces surprises. We say this every four years and then immediately act shocked when a heavily favored team drops points against an opponent most casual fans haven’t…
-
Will Fuel Prices Increase in Kenya This Month?
Fuel Prices in Kenya: Will They Go Up This Month? It’s one of those questions that comes up quietly but often — maybe at a petrol station queue, or someone scrolling on their phone after seeing global oil headlines. Are fuel prices going up again? The short answer is: maybe. Slight bias toward an increase,…
-
How Probability Works in Prediction Markets
There’s a weird thing about probability. People use it constantly but pretend they don’t. Someone says, “There’s no way fuel prices stay this low next month.” Another person insists their team is definitely winning on Sunday. Your aunt somehow predicts rain better than weather apps just by looking outside for fifteen seconds from the balcony.…
-
Prediction Markets vs Betting: What’s the Difference?
There’s a funny thing that happens whenever prediction markets come up in conversation in Kenya. Someone usually says, “So basically betting?” Then another person says something about Aviator or Premier League accumulators and the discussion drifts off into odds and last-minute goals. It happens a lot. Probably because both systems involve uncertainty, probabilities, and people…
-
What Are Prediction Markets? A Beginner’s Guide for Kenyans
Learn what prediction markets are, how they work, and how Kenyans can use them to forecast events and make smarter decisions. Prediction markets are one of the fastest-growing trends globally—but in Kenya, very few people fully understand how they work. In simple terms, a prediction market is a platform where people trade on the outcome…
Latest Articles
Search the Archives
Access over the years of journalism and breaking reports
You May Have Missed
