Tag: how prediction markets work
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Why Crowds Often Predict Better Than Experts
A funny thing happens every time the world becomes obsessed with predicting something. It could be a major election, a World Cup final, a central bank decision, or even whether a particular company will beat earnings expectations. Suddenly everyone has a forecast. Television panels fill up with experts. Newspapers publish opinion pieces. Social media becomes…
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How Probability Works in Prediction Markets
There’s a weird thing about probability. People use it constantly but pretend they don’t. Someone says, “There’s no way fuel prices stay this low next month.” Another person insists their team is definitely winning on Sunday. Your aunt somehow predicts rain better than weather apps just by looking outside for fifteen seconds from the balcony.…
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What Are Prediction Markets? A Beginner’s Guide for Kenyans
Learn what prediction markets are, how they work, and how Kenyans can use them to forecast events and make smarter decisions. Prediction markets are one of the fastest-growing trends globally—but in Kenya, very few people fully understand how they work. In simple terms, a prediction market is a platform where people trade on the outcome…
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